About False Cover
The Thesis
Betting markets are remarkably efficient at setting the Against The Spread (ATS) line. But that's precisely what makes ATS betting interesting. Finding the small edges where the market hasn't fully priced in all available information. False Cover is a tool to help you find these edges.
My key tenet is that that the NFL is a week-to-week sport. What does that mean? It means that in today's sophisticated gambling environment, too many "trends" are identified by casual bettors that are not sustainable. Trends support biased narratives.
Instead I want to look at what happened last week and how it might impact the current week. This gives us a more objective view of the current week's games. I call these signals.
I also don't predict winners but rather give a confidence score to each game based on the signals we identify. Situations where the spread might not fully account for all the factors in play. Then grade each game based on the signals we identify.
What We Look For
Market Signals
Handle vs Ticket divergence at DraftKings (not used in grading due to prediction market hedging).
When the line moves against the side receiving the majority of public bets.
Handle% > 50 while Ticket% < 50 at Circa (professional money flow).
45%+ difference between professional (Circa) and public (DK) handle.
Significant handle change (10%+) while the line remains flat.
Subtle Circa handle movement against public tickets that moves the line.
Situational Edges
Favoring the 'grinder' team that barely beat a bad opponent over a team that crushed a bad opponent. Only fires after Week 10.
Two sub-.400 teams meet in Week 18 with home team favored. Historical trend strongly favors away team (13-2 ATS).
Structural scheduling disadvantage from extended travel periods.
Fading road teams the week after an international travel game.
Body clock impact in 8pm games with 3+ hour timezone travel.
TNF or Bye week rest vs opponent on normal or short rest.
Fatigue factor for away teams on their third consecutive road trip.
Teams coming off a 20+ point loss as an underdog often cover.
Fading teams that won after trailing by 9+ points in the 4th quarter.
Roster Depth
40%+ of last week's OL/DL/LB/DB starters now Out/IR/Doubtful. Higher weight (sudden injuries hard to price).
40%+ of Day 1 OL starters or 50%+ of DL/LB/DB starters missing. Lower weight (market adjusts over time).
How To Use This
Games are ranked by confidence. A measure of how many signals align on one side. Higher confidence means more factors pointing the same direction, not a guarantee of success.
Use False Cover as one input in your process. The best bettors combine multiple perspectives before making decisions.
Grading Methodology
Picks are graded against the best available line from DraftKings during the betting window. This represents the most favorable spread you could have gotten if you acted when our signal fired.
For home picks, we use the highest home spread seen. For away picks, the highest away spread. This gives the picked side the maximum cushion.
Only picks above 52% confidence are graded. This is the breakeven point at -110 juice. Lower confidence picks are marked as "skipped."
Playoff games (Wild Card through Super Bowl) are tracked with picks and confidence scores, but are not included in our grading record.
This methodology answers the practical question: "If I bet when the system said to bet at the best available number, how would I have done?"
System Status
Green indicates the pipeline ran within expected window. Data updates throughout the week.